2008 का US Market Crash, फिर से

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Sources:
https://vivekkaul.com/2022/07/03/how-the-american-real-estate-bubble-impacts-you-and-your-investments/
https://fortune.com/2022/07/02/housing-market-housing-bubble-requires-three-elements-the-us-has-hit-two/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-pandemic-ignited-a-housing-boombut-its-different-from-the-last-one-11615824558

Is the 2008 bubble back?
An Old saying goes that: "When America Sneezes, The World Catches Cold". The same in 2008 when the US Housing market collapsed and with that markets all over the world as well as in India collapsed and went into a phase of economic recession.

It seems that a similar situation is building up again in US. The textbook definition of a housing bubble requires three things. Let's take a look at these three stages and check whether the current situation is as bad as it seems or not.

Stage 1: High Demand-High Speculation-Buying Rush

America witnessed housing boom post pandemic as many left crowded cities to moved to cheaper cities for more space, since everything was work from home. During early months of pandemic, the home sales went from half a million in April 20 to more than a million in August. This shows that demands increased heavily but the sales has eventually dropped. This leads us to stage two.

Stage 2: Spike and overvaluation in housing prices

Since pandemic led to high demand but not enough supply therefore the housing market prices have been up by 42% since Jan 2020, the usual being 4.4% increase per year. Now initially, the sales were high, but as prices started to soar sales went down to where they were in Apr 2022.

Stage 3 of course is a crash.

Researchers in America are calling this a situation highly similar to 2008 but not necessarily a bubble but the actual reason being that: In 2020, Federal Reserve of the United States started to print a lot of money, to take care of economic contraction because of the spread of the covid pandemic.

The idea was to drive down interest rates. At lower interest rates people were expected to borrow and spend money. For eg thrity year home loan in America went as low as 2.65% in Jan 2021. With interest rates at such low levels, more people started borrowing and buying homes than was the case in the past.

But here the demad was quick, suuply wasn't. Therefore the two stages have been achieved.

Now he US reserve has come back to senses as it has decided to take out over to a trillion dollar back from the market circulation. This is going to increase the interest rate and therefore might control the housing market situation or make it calmer.
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